12.01.2008

prime minister dion?

so it appears prime minister stephen harper is on the verge of one cluster-fuck meltdown, with the liberals and ndp poised to take control of a coalition government, backed by the bloc quebecois. some would call it a political coup, while others would call it politically necessary.

the coalition would involve 24 cabinet members, six of which were ndp, with the minister of finance being a liberal, and the coalition itself would expire june 30, 2011. the bloc has agreen not to defeat the coalition government, and this agreement would expire or renew in 18 months.

how could this work? well, when facing a vote on a major bill, such as the one coming up, if it is voted down, the government faces a vote of non confidence. at that point, the governor general could dissolve parliament and an election would be called. however, the governor general could decide to allow the opposition to govern as a coalition, because technically they will have enough seats to run the government.

the problem is, the conservative government is seen as too slow on the draw when it comes to the canadian economy. while we aren't technically in a recession yet, the sensible reaction would be for the government to go on the offensive; to be proactive with its fiscal policies, to try and head off the recession. also, the conservatives were planning on eliminating the $1.95-a-vote subsidy for political parties. the subsidy is a much needed source of funds for the opposition, as well as smaller canadian political parties. it guarantees that a person is not "throwing" their vote away when they don't vote for the major parties (eg: green party). it makes sure that all parites are given a fighting chance, instead of the old system where only the parties backed by rich supporters could ever get a chance. to their credit, the conservatives backed down from this a few days ago.

how successful would such a coalition be? who knows. but the reality is, harper has been playing hardball politics ever since his party came into power. this most recent blunder by harper is futher evidence of his hardball tactics, as he tried to bluff the opposition into swallowing their demands. the gamble was that the opposition would dare not vote down the bill because they woudn't want to trigger another election so close to the last, but it appears his bluff has been called. the very same hardball politics is being tossed back in his face. i suppose when you live by the sword, you die by it too.

harper has called this move illegitimate because of the past month's election outcome. apparently harper likes to piss in our faces and tell us its raining, cause back in 2004, harper sent the governor general a letter which requested that should paul martin's liberals be defeated, the opposition should be considered to lead:
"We respectfully point out that the opposition parties, who together constitute a majority in the House, have been in close consultation. We believe that, should a request for dissolution arise this should give you cause, as constitutional practice has determined, to consult the opposition leaders and consider all of your options before exercising your constitutional authority," the 2004 letter stated.
oh how temporary our memories can be! as much as the conservatives complain, the facts remain that the canadian political system allows for it the coalition, and together, the opposition has 60% of the popular vote, so one could contend the opposition has the mandate, and not the government.

what does this mean for the canadian economy? i personally think our economy will hold out in the long run, but political uncertainty doesn't help. today the tsx saw its biggest single day point drop since black monday in 1987. if the coalition succeeds, the fact that such a leftist leaning party like the ndp is in power could further erode business confidence, cause let's face it: the ndp has never really been known for fiscal brilliance. when faced with the possibility of losing their jobs, the middle class doesn't give a shit about the poor. so what canada needs is a plan. at this point, any plan will do so long as the government delivers it with conviction, because the markets are psychological more than anything. people need confidence. on a good day, i wouldn't trust the opposition to agree on driving directions together let alone run the government together, but there's a first time for everything.

regardless, this is gonna be an interesting week.

(source)